Friday, April 21, 2006

Homes and Chips

Hi everyone.

A few ideas for you to consider. There is more on these on my own blog so I won't duplicate all the content.

Intel (Nasdaq: INTC)
Price: $19.06

I know AMD is eating their breakfast and lunch and dinner. But Intel is getting cheap. On a forward P/E basis, it is trading at the same multiple as the S&P 500. The pain for the stock may not be over, but I think it is worth taking a position at these levels. Perhaps you will get a chance to add to your position at $17 or $18. I won't bore you with the details, but you can read more about my thoughts on this on my blog.

Pulte (NYSE: PHM) and Centex (NYSE: CTX)
Price: $40 and $62)

You probably think I am crazy. But that's OK. As a value investor, I will have to get used to that. What am I thinking? With a looming armageddon in the frothy housing market, why would I recommend shares of a couple of homebuilders? Well, the simple answer is that they are CHEAP, CHEAP, CHEAP. But, surely, there is a reason they are so cheap. After all, the housing bubble will soon burst. Right? Well, I am not so sure. These companies have been around for decades and have been through many ups and downs. They are solid businesses with solid balance sheets and sound management. And did I mention they are CHEAP? Mr. Sheasby may be thinking the markets are efficient and so the shares of these companies are deservedly beaten down. Maybe. But I will side with David Dreman on this one. You can read more about Dreman on my blog so I won't bore you with the contrarian blurb. In short, homebuilders are the cheapest, by P/E, of all the major industry sectors on the market. They deserve a serious look for the long-term investor.

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